The resounding Democratic victories across the country last Tuesday have sent shockwaves rippling throughout the GOP. Victories in New Jersey, Virginia, California, and Minnesota all point towards national dissatisfaction with Republican leadership - a national sea-change that is just the first glimpse of the trends that will help Democrats take back the Senate in 2006
An exclusive DSCC polling memo from Harstad Strategic Research states that "Timothy Kaine´s fresh victory as governor in the Red state of Virginia is a pivotal win for Democrats in a state that Bush carried last year by an 8% margin." What's more, Bush visited Virginia on Monday campaigning for Kaine's opponent Kilgore but his presence didn't help - and may have even hurt - Kilgore's chances.
Signs at Bush's rally for Kilgore proclaimed "Virginia is Bush country!" but voters across the state repudiated that notion. University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato said, "There's no way to spin this than anything other than a major defeat for Republicans and for President Bush... If anything, he may have cost Kilgore some votes."
Bush's poor approval ratings across the country had other affects on major races.
- In New Jersey, Professor David Rebovich, chairman of the political science department at Rider College, said of Governor-elect Corzine, "He was able to win by coloring Doug Forrester a George Bush Republican."
- In St. Paul, Minnesota Bush-supporter Mayor Randy Kelly was booted from office in a race where analysts called Bush "THE factor" in the race
- In California, where Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger´s ballot initiatives all failed, Bush was asked to stay away for fear he would drag the initiatives down in the polls even further. In addition, Schwarzenegger´s championing of President Bush´s candidacy in 2004 has been described as "a costly move" in California.
What do these resounding losses mean for 2006 Democratic Senate candidates? Just ask Republicans. In 1993, after similar wins for Republicans, then-Sen. Bob Dole said, "there's something about winning that I think is contagious. It's going to help us attract more candidates, going to help us raise more money."
And in other signs, an Arizona Republican - the site of a key Senate race in 2006 - Rep. J.D. Hayworth, when asked if he wants Bush to campaign for him said: "In a word, no."
What the 2005 Democratic victories have shown is that one of the Republican's major weapons, President Bush, is backfiring on his party. His approval ratings are dragging down GOP candidates, his failed agenda has provided nothing but losing issues, and his mere presence is enough to sending Republican candidates running to the hills.
Republicans like those at the NRSC will try and spin their way out of these defeats but we're willing to bet there are Republican Senate candidates across the country that didn't sleep very easily last night at all.
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