Thursday, March 13, 2008 - Democratic Update

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Sen.Obama's huge win in Mississippi eliminated the popular vote gain Hillary Clinton made in Texas. He again leads by some 700,000 votes. He again proved capable of a huge win in a smaller state that swamped Clinton's victory margin in a larger state. Had the Clinton team had the money and strategic smarts to hold their defeats in the Potomac Primaries to margins of even 15%, this would be an entirely different campaign. However, when Obama wins states, Clinton also often loses them. Should Sen. Obama win this nomination, the Potomac Primaries will be remembered as the turning point.

The question, now, is whether Sen. Clinton can make up that 700,000 popular vote deficit, in order to have any credible claim to the nomination. The polls in Pennsylvania continue to give her a wide lead, and the state is even more demographically favorable to her than was Ohio; and given that, her ten-point win in Ohio was worth a popular vote gain of nearly 230,000 votes, a similar win in Pennsylvania would be worth even more. A margin of 300,000 seems very possible. Her only chance of overcoming that final 400,000 would seem to reside in her breaking roughly even in the remaining scheduled states, while winning big in Florida and Michigan revotes. As has been clear for some time, her only chance to take a credible popular vote lead depends on Florida and Michigan. The previous votes in those states will never be considered credible. Revotes are the only answer.

The Obama camp is hedging on revotes. In fact, they are now resorting to legal arguments, and very understandably would prefer that the delegate slates be simply split between the two candidates. The latter will not happen. The Clinton camp would prefer the previous elections be validated, but they are open to revotes, as an alternative. The former will not happen. So, the only fair resolution being revotes, we now see the campaigns articulating clear stances: Clinton would prefer that there be no revotes, but is open to the idea; Obama would prefer that there be no revotes, and seems willing to try to block them. As Big Tent Democrat makes clear, that position will be hard to defend. Were I as manipulative as some big name bloggers on some big name sites, I would claim that Obama doesn't think Florida and Michigan voters are relevant; but of course, he does think they're relevant, he's just worried about the results of their votes. This is nothing more than politics-as-usual, and it should not be spun as anything else.

Should Florida revote, it is likely that Clinton will match or beat her previous victory margin, thus slicing Obama's popular vote lead to roughly 100,000 votes. The question would then be whether she could win Michigan by that much. Her huge margin in the previous vote cannot be taken as measure, and the only recent poll, by Rasmussen, shows Clinton and Obama tied. Many, however, feel the demographics would favor Clinton. Nevertheless, would they favor her enough to give her a margin that would put her over the top, in total popular votes? There is only one way to find out.

Of course, none of this may matter. Clinton may win by such large margins in Pennsylvania and Florida that all she will need is a slight win in Michigan. Obama may close in those two states, and make it impossible for the Michigan margin to matter. He might clean up in Indiana and some of the other remaining states, also making his popular vote lead unassailable. On the other hand, she might do well in the remaining states. However, what is still clear and obvious is the necessity of resolving Florida and Michigan. Clinton is not going to get the current delegate slates. Obama cannot block revotes without blowing his chances of winning in November. A revote plan is being developed, and it should be implemented.

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Friday, March 21, 2008 - Untitled Comment
Posted by dutchboy
It's a real pity, but I understand. If I knew more about US politics I would have posted comments. Oh well, good luck. Take care.

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Saturday, August 15, 2009 - The Most Frustrated Writer Ive Ever Seen...
Posted by wayne abott
I did what I told you I wasnt going to do, Heather; I went thru all your google returns- seventeen pages. Heather, I so wish you wouldnt dislike me. I am not, as you say "obsessed" with you, but I am very much intrigued- you seem to be such an amalgam of seeming contradictions. I dearly wish we could spend some time talking.

I came across a hotmail account of yours which I also intend to try. I hope you dont mind. I'm not a pest- I'm just an admirer.

Wayne/richard

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Saturday, August 15, 2009 - The Most Frustrated Writer Ive Ever Seen...
Posted by wayne abott
I did what I told you I wasnt going to do, Heather; I went thru all your google returns- seventeen pages. Heather, I so wish you wouldnt dislike me. I am not, as you say "obsessed" with you, but I am very much intrigued- you seem to be such an amalgam of seeming contradictions. I dearly wish we could spend some time talking.

I came across a hotmail account of yours which I also intend to try. I hope you dont mind. I'm not a pest- I'm just an admirer.

Wayne/richard

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About Heather ™
I have suspeneded my blog site
I may come back to it at a later date
I am sorry that my blogs and site were not appreciated and lacked participation
It just seems like my JH Colleagues have little interest in this format
I have to devote my time and energy where it is appreciated
It seems thats not the case here.
I wish JH and My Colleagues here well...Love and blessings to all







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I am not Neocon or Republican, not "liberal but progressive"Rather, I like to say "progressive Independent" and independent of ideology, which really means: I think for myself.


My goal is to vanquish Neocons / Bush from this Land near and far...
To make women wake up, get angry, protest and act!
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Due to lack of participation
My blog site will be suspended indefinately
My Time is too valuable to devote to futile causes
farewell all
Sincerely,
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