9/27/2005 - MMFA Cites Lowly Studies To Back Up False Global Warming Claims
Posted in Unspecified
In a September 26, 2005 item, Media Matters for America used low-quality studies and misleading statistics to dispute a claim made by George Will that hurricanes were not increasing due to global warming.
http://mediamatters.org/items/200509260004
"Will's comments on hurricane frequency ignored the heart of the current scientific debate that postulates a link between hurricane intensity -- not frequency -- and warming trends," says MMFA. Let's play their game...
MMFA claims that the "are becoming increasingly powerful, a trend identified in research on hurricanes worldwide." They cite a study conducted by the Georgia Institute of Technology and the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which states that "he number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide has nearly doubled over the past 35 years..."
But this still does not answer the question, "Is hurricane intensity increasing or decreasing?" While that sounds like a stunning statistic, it must be compared to the number of Cat 4's and 5's before that time period to be an actual statistic. Relative to earlier time periods, of course, the number of Cat 4's and 5's has been less since 1970 since the thirty years before that.
A chart from the National Weather Service proves this:
DECADE (ex. 1921-1930) NUMBER OF CAT 4'S AND 5'S
1970 0
1980 1
1990 1
2000 1
Now, take a look starting at the 1930s:
1930 2
1940 1
1950 3
1960 2
Notice the pattern?
The last thirty years, yes, we have seen more since 1970. We have yet however to match the 30s-60s, in which hurricanes struck at both a frequency and intensity of enormous proportions.
This is, of couse, a count of hurricanes to strike the U.S. We could go back and look at every single hurricane to strike anywhere (even just the middle of the ocean.) So, we will. Below is a graph using data from the National Weather Service, counting all storms (not just hurricanes but also tropical depressions and storms) and their pressure (lower pressure=more intense). Notice the pattern:
Hmmmmm.....notice the green line going "up." Remember how I said lower=more intense?
And heres another chart with wind speeds for intensity:
Hmmmmm... I'ts going uuup and doooownnn.... notice how the line is more up during the 1940s-60s.
Furthermore, more official data from the United Nations Environment Programme - World Meteorological Organization in a report stated that "Reliable data from the North Atlantic since the 1940s indicate that the peak strength of the strongest hurricanes has not changed, and the mean maximum intensity of all hurricanes has decreased."
Decreased. Yes, decreased. Decreased decreased decreased.
MMFA really hit it on the head this time. Get it right!
Note: Special props to our friends down at the Seixon blog, who feature the graphs I linked to that were created using data from the NWS. Go over and give 'em some traffic! And if ya wanna validate the graphs, make one yourself using Excel and the data from NWS.
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